Member Posts: 2,088: NC (Trafalgar): Trump + 3 « on: October 25, 2020, 12:00:52 PM » However, Cahaly stressed that due to the COVID-19 pandemic and unusually high rate of mail-in voting, the 2020 election would be more difficult to predict than the 2016 election. OH Oct 2020 Presidential Poll Donald Trump 47.6% Joe Biden 43.9% Jo Jorgensen 2.6% Howie Hawkins 1.0% Someone Else 1.4% Undecided 3.6% See Report Here Top Battlegrounds RCP Avg. point margin for Trump would be significantly better than the 1.7 percentage point edge Trump enjoyed in the September 2020 Trafalgar poll in North Carolina . (Trafalgar Group, Arizona poll) That poll was conducted Oct. 6-8, 2020. Our poll was the only thing he tweeted about that day. The Rest Are 'Fake.'. October 13th, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, . — Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) October 28, 2020. Feb. 7, 2022. Department of Political Science, Montana State University -Bozeman . If President Trump . — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020 A number of news organizations see Biden as the clear favorite in the race given his lead in national polls and most polls of key swing states. RCP's polling average of top battleground states puts Biden . 2:00. In Wisconsin, 33 polls were taken, and none found President Trump running ahead. Joe Biden 46.6%. Congressional Job Approval. It's good news, but with the possibility of fraud in mail-in voting, it is a concern that it's . RCP Electoral College Map. Trafalgar shows similar results in Pennsylvania, where its more recent poll has Biden leading Trump, 47.4% to 45.1%, a 2.3-point edge for Biden. Tuesday, November 03. . Bad Polls and Good Polls Explained: The Art of Polling. Direction of Country. CTH: Russian Military Drills Conclude, Troop Withdrawal Begins, White House Proclaims the Stunning Strength and Brilliant Strategic Thinking of Joe Biden Averted Thermonuclear War Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #Arizona #BattlegroundState #poll conducted Oct 6-8 shows Trump expanding his lead to 4%: 47.8% @realDonaldTrump, Virginia. Trafalgar Group: 8/07/2020: 43% : 49% : 2% . Joe Biden is campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania, even the same places Pittsburgh, Latrobe, Greensburg, and Johnstown where Hillary Clinton campaigned in the final weeks of the 2016 race. It first publicly released polls in 2016, and it successfully predicted the result of the 2016 presidential election.Trafalgar Group incorrectly predicted the 2020 presidential election results, but was rated the second most accurate pollster on the election by FiveThirtyEight. We need a PPP or QU poll to really know about OH We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard . Hillary Clinton was . Trafalgar's previous Pennsylvania poll - conducted between October 10-12, 2020 - had Biden drawing 47.4 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 45.1 percent, an edge of 2.3 percentage . Things just don't make sense. The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. Even in those, they were within the stated margin . I would rather believe the betting market than these polls which are proven wrong so many times. M Dowling. October 6, 2020 at 2:15 pm . However, another Twitter user hit back at Silver, saying, "Maybe you . Tabular data and analysis provided by: Dr. David C. W. Parker, Dr. Eric D. Raile, and Dr. Elizabeth A. Shanahan . North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Trump 48, Biden 49 Biden +1 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Trump 47, Biden 49 Biden +2 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change . The Trafalgar Group. 1 yr. ago. Despite the Polls, Trump Could Win in 2020 (Part 1) In our article two weeks ago, we noted that, despite common perception, the 2016 polls were surprisingly accurate—in both the national polls, as well as State polls. Undecided 1.1% Minnesota Oct 25 Presidential Poll - Trafalgar Group. Notes: The survey was in the field from September 14 October 2, 2020. The current RealClearPolitics average in . Your Election Night Cheat Sheet - The Trafalgar Polls Summary The folks who got it right last time have a one-stop-shop review of what's in store for us on Election Day 2020. « Reply #16 on: October 05, 2020, 11:48:15 PM » This is a Trafalgar poll, if IA is changing D due to our Congregation leaning D, so is OH. From Presidential and major statewide campaigns to market research, we have delivered quality polling results to candidates and businesses at all levels. Political and Corporate Surveys/Market Research. Nov. 8, 2020. Republicans 43, Democrats 42. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. October 13, 2020. When asked about the Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls, many in the mainstream media dismiss them as "crazy", but Trafalgar and Rasmussen were right on the money in 2016. Robert C. Cahaly ‏ @RobertCahaly 19 Oct 2020. . View the results of 2020 election polls from Texas. Some recent polls suggest the race may be tightening as Election Day nears, though. Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 47, Trump 49: Trump +2: Florida: Trump vs. Biden: Quinnipiac: Biden 47, Trump 42: . . In the latest polls, in Michigan, Trump leads Biden, 46.6 percent to 45.2 . Someone Else 1.2%. A Michigan poll that has . October 21, 2020 10:17 AM ET. In 2016, the worst being said about Trump voters is that they were "deplorable." 2020 is a whole different ballgame. He is attracting "white middle . See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election. Michigan Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll - Trafalgar Group. Trafalgar Group, Susquehanna, Rasmussen and a few others have reliable turnout models built into their polls, most others seem to be fantasizing about a 2008-like turnout in 2020. President Donald Trump appears to be pulling ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden in the battleground, rust belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin, according to two polls by the Trafalgar Group, the polling firm that correctly called the 2016 election for Trump in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.. Jo Jorgensen 2.1%. It's so weird that Florida is simultaneously a swing state and immune to wave elections. Someone Else 0.8% . Trafalgar Group (R) Ossoff 48, Perdue 47. Trafalgar Group: 10/11/2020: 47% Youngkin 48.4, McAuliffe 47.5, a statistical tie in a state Joe Biden won by 10 points in 2020: Some models, like FiveThirtyEight, are calling this result a tie at 48% each, which is not an unreasonable way to do your rounding. In Michigan, the difference between Trafalgar and the RCP average of all polls (including Trafalgar's) . MI Oct 2020 Senate Poll John James 48.0% Gary Peters 46.6% Someone Else 2.8% Undecided 2.5% See Report Here 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Georgia Senate Run-Off Election - Perdue vs. Ossoff. for the right job . "The shy Trump effect or the social desirability - that's people's unwillingness to express an opinion that . Trafalgar group polls are an outlier; they predict President Donald Trump will win in election 2020. . Trafalgar, the most accurate battleground state pollster for the 2016 cycle, pretty much says . By. President. #AmericaFirst #Trump2020 #USA #Conservative #subscribe #Trafalgar #Polls #NorthCarolina #Pennsylvania #Michigan #Trump #Biden #. Recent Posts. Politico/Morning Consult. A recent Trafalgar poll also shows Trump trailing Biden by five points in Pennsylvania. — PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020 Arizona, which some worried might be flipping blue, isn't, according to PollWatch. Joseph 'Joe' R. Biden, Jr . In response, 47.8% said they would vote for Trump and 43.8% said they would vote for Biden. And it wasn't just Florida—he outperformed the other polls across the spread. This poll tends to be fairly accurate if you look at 2016 and 2018. Arizona October 30 Presidential Poll. They underestimated Trump in seven polls and underestimated Hillary in five. A Fox News poll released Thursday found 51 percent support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe and 46 percent support for GOP candidate Glenn Youngkin among likely voters. October 25, 2020. Rows in tables may not sum . Poll. I don't want you to miss this. Saturday, October 30: Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread; Virginia Governor - Youngkin vs. McAuliffe: Roanoke College* . Retweeted. General Election. Michigan Nov 1, 2020 Presidential Poll. Minnesota Oct '20 Presidential Poll. There were also 3% undecided in that poll, despite Trafalgar's secret Trump . TOTALS (with leans) Donald Trump 49.1%. Results. October 28, 2020 at 7:15 pm . Recent state polls from Trafalgar Group, another conservative pollster, found Biden leading in Wisconsin by 2 points (48% to 46%) and Pennsylvania (48% to 46%) (another Pennsylvania poll showed . He had Trump up a bit over 2% in Florida, which is very close to where it'll likely land after everything is settled. At this point, the Trafalgar poll is the only poll that is reflecting reality. Joe Biden (D) and President Donald Trump are statistically tied in Pennsylvania, a Trafalgar Group survey released Tuesday revealed. October 30, 2020. President Trump's blinkered view of 2020 polling has created something of an alternate universe, even as his . Pollsters that did not release any horse . . Yet, in all three cases, he won the state. Notes: The survey was in the field from September 14 October 2, 2020. The Trafalgar Group, which is best known for accurately predicting the outcome of the 2016 election, conducted the poll from Feb. 2 to 6 and surveyed more than 1,000 likely 2022 election voters. . This is the last Trafalgar Video Before the ElectionCredit to Matt Gagnon for the Video Idea Subscribe to Him Here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci8D_IjjG-. The post 7 Issues Dems Are Losing on Ahead of the Midterms appeared first on Washington Free Beacon . Trump is leading in Michigan 46.5% to 45.9%. that they will lie or stay silent in order to . In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump's upset win. Donald Trump 44.8%. Senate . So, their polling results shouldn't be brushed off to the side. TREASURE STATE 2020 POLL RESULTS: THE MONTANA U.S. SENATE RACE . I guess Trafalgar is the gold standard since they're practically the only poll that has been 6+ points off compared to the 50 others. The Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic region was not the only area where 2016 polling missed the mark. 48 thoughts on "Trafalgar Poll: Biden 47.4, Trump 45.1" Hooterbear says: October 15, 2020 at 6:08 pm Oh please, where was your concern on Ivanka getting 18 trademarks from China and rushed thru right after election. A lot of election 2020 is mysteriously similar to election 2016. Grabyourownpussy says: October 18, 2020 at 6:27 pm They were spot on last time around, and at the 2018 midterms. Polls conducted after June 28, 2018, the date this page was published, are listed by the date that FiveThirtyEight collected them; polls conducted before then are listed under the last date that the poll was in the field. This year had more things where you can get punished for expressing an . — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020. Font Size: Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly claimed Tuesday that President Donald Trump could be headed for reelection with the "hidden" support that most polling fails to capture. On October 21, Trafalgar head Robert Cahaly publicly predicted a narrow victory for President Trump, with an expected electoral count in the 270s. Trafalgar Group (R) Youngkin 49, McAuliffe 47: Youngkin +2: . In fact, following the election it was reported that "Trafalgar's polls were either the most accurate (or tied for the most accurate) of any other poll in the 2016 . Ossoff +1. Jo Jorgensen 2.0%. (@ShaneGoldmacher) October 16, 2020. . Latest 2020 Presidential General Election Polls. . . TOTALS (with leans) Joe Biden 48.0%. Reply. Latest Election 2020 Polls. In Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group shows a 0.8 point lead for Trump, while a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post predicts a 7-point win for Biden for the 20 electoral votes in Keystone State. Republicans +1. Polls done in September and October have suggested Biden ahead by as little as 4 points and as many as 17. -. at the right time . While the former vice president leads Trump 47.4 percent to 45.1 percent, Biden's 2.3 percent lead is well within the survey's +/- 2.97 percent margin of error, indicating a statistical tie in the state. IBD/TIPP*. We were named the best polling firm of 2016 presidential race, and this year, Real Clear Politics called us "the most accurate pollster of . Election Polls | President Polls . in October 2016, an AP-GfK poll also showed that Trump had fallen 14 points behind Hillary Clinton right after their final debate — 12 days before the . Trafalgar Group Pollster Robert Cahaly: Polls Overlooking "Shy" Trump Supporters Posted By Tim Hains On Date October 25, 2020 Watch the latest video at foxnews.com Democrats are flailing and failing in almost every department right now. The conservative pollsters, Trafalgar Group, show Trump taking a steady lead nationwide. Pennsylvania Oct 25 Presidential Poll. Biden has a lead of 50.6% to 43.4% over President Donald Trump in the RealClear Politics average of national polls as of Wednesday. 2024 Electoral College Map 2020 Presidential Election Results Latest Presidential Election Polls 2020 Polling Averages by State Pundit Forecasts 2020 Simulation Historical Elections 2020 Democratic Primary 2020 Republican Primary. FiveThirtyEight, the poll aggregation site owned by ABC News, has tracked public opinion on House races in California districts 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 25, 39, 48, 50, and 53. . Economist/YouGov. Author: Topic: NC (Trafalgar): Trump + 3 (Read 1475 times) Buzz Sr. Keep track of the latest polls for candidates in the 2020 election compiled from sources across the nation. . You can't trust the polls Trafalgar just happens to be the closest to accurate. 2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes. By: Leesa K. Donner October 30, 2020 - 7:31 am Articles , Election 2020 , Politics , Social Issues Tabular data and analysis provided by: Dr. David C. W. Parker, Dr. Eric D. Raile, and Dr. Elizabeth A. Shanahan . In the Pennsylvania poll, conducted Oct. 24-25, Trafalgar asked 1,076 likely voters, "If the election or president were held today, how would you vote?" (Trafalgar Group) In response, 46.7% of likely voters in Pennsylvania said they would vote for Trump; 45.8% said they would vote for Joe Biden -- roughly 1% difference between the two candidates. That poll was conducted Oct. 11-13, 2020. October 31: Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread; Iowa: Trump vs. Biden: The battleground states are within a hair's breadth. Posted on 10/25/2020 7:30:04 AM PDT by rintintin PollWatch @PollWatch2020 Two pollsters—Big Data Poll and The Trafalgar Group—are finding similar numbers for ARIZONA: Big Data Poll: Trump +2.5 (Oct 16-20) In some battleground states, media polls have results that are easily 15+ points left of what I, and others, believe the actual vote will be. Spread. Latest 2020 State Presidential Election Polls. TREASURE STATE 2020 POLL RESULTS: THE MONTANA U.S. SENATE RACE . Thursday, December 3. He still didn't get every state right, though. 2. Georgia Senate Special Election Run-Off - Loeffler vs. Warnock Trafalgar Group (R) Warnock 45, Loeffler 50 Loeffler +5. A Trafalgar Florida poll, for example, that has Trump leading overall by 3 points, shows Trump winning 25 percent of Black voters and leading among 18-to-24-year-olds. Sep 07, 2020 02:37pm Surprisingly betting market is putting it's money on Trump. October 28, 2020 12:34 PM ET Font Size: The Trafalgar Group was one of the only pollsters in the country to predict President Donald Trump's 2016 wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Here's what he had for Florida in October: Trafalgar polling for Florida in October of 2020. To Trump, 'the Polls That Matter' Point to Victory. . According to Trafalgar, there's a secret army of voters who are so convinced that the New York liberal with an "R" after his name is the right person . Their media outlets are collapsing, their narratives are being disrupted, their Retweet. The 2020 polls are trash. A veteran . Recent Republican registration gains in AZ and the new Trafalgar poll showing Trump +4 in AZ, are good news for Trump. The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. A Trafalgar Group poll released the same day found Youngkin and McAuliffe practically tied among likely voters, with 48.4 percent support for Youngkin, and 47.5 percent support for McAuliffe. By. However, the real headline of this poll comes from Youngkin's ability to claw back from being down 7 to 10 points in . Their last Michigan poll, in September, had Trump ahead by 0.7, and I don't see things moving in his favor there. 3. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Rows in tables may not sum . — PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020. Department of Political Science, Montana State University -Bozeman . Trump won Michigan in 2016 with over 10,000 votes but it seems like that doesn't matter to any pollsters. In Michigan, 45 polls were publicly released, and Trump led in just two, one of which was Trafalgar's final 2016 study. 770-542-8170. Kanye West 3.3%. AZ Oct 2020 Presidential Poll TOTALS (with leans) Donald Trump 48.9% Joe Biden 46.4% Jo Jorgensen 2.3% Someone Else 1.7% Undecided 0.7% See Report Here "What we've noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what is referred to as the . Approve 17, Disapprove 58. louis44 says: September 21, 2020 at 6:03 pm Trump's bad polls? Electoral College. Michigan Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll. Then when the October poll came out, Trump was in the hospital with COVID-19. It first publicly released polls in 2016, and it successfully predicted the result of the 2016 presidential election.Trafalgar Group incorrectly predicted the 2020 presidential election results, but was rated the second most accurate pollster on the election by FiveThirtyEight. It is worse this time—significantly worse. Trafalgar Group polls: outliers with uncanny knack for accurately sampling Trump vote September 22, 2020 MJA Uncategorized 5 Maverick pollster Robert Cahaly has honed techniques for finding Trump voters veiled by " social-desirability bias." A A. "Biden is from Scranton, and the polls we see in Pennsylvania aren't like in 2016. Trump takes the lead in Trafalgar poll, winning with Blacks. Disapprove +41. Wisconsin Oct 25, 2020 Presidential Poll. For Arizona, Trafalgar asked the same question of 1,087 likely voters. . One of the few pollsters to accurately project President Donald Trump's presidential election in 2016 is now predicting another Trump surprise victory from support of "shy" voters, according to Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. . . — Hugh Hewitt (@hughhewitt) October 16, 2020 Trafalgar poll was the only poll to correctly predict Trump winning PA and Michigan in 2016. October 25, 2020. Updating the Trafalgar Map!!! The Trafalgar poll was right on in every state in 2016 when all of the other polls except for Rasmussen were calling for a Hillary landslide.Fake news would have you believe this will be a Biden landslide when this election will be really tight no matter who wins.

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